2.00 HUNTINGDON - DEEP PURPLE
Deep Purple is the lay in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon because he does not fit the profile of past winners of this race. Winners of the Peterborough Chase have won or been placed in the King George, placed in the Tingle Creek, placed in the Royal and Sun Alliance and ran in the Arkle and Old Roan chases. The horses which satisfy these trends are: Albertas Run (won Royal and Sun Alliance and 2nd King George), Racing Demon (7th Arkle and 3rd King George) and Tidal Bay (won Arkle, 2nd Tingle Creek, 2nd Old Roan).
Deep Purple has only won a Charlie Hall chase and is forecast to be 5/1.
Wednesday 9 December 2009
Saturday 5 December 2009
Tingle Creek Chase 5th December 2009
2.25 SANDOWN - BIG ZEB
Big Zeb is the lay in the Tingle Creek at Sandown because he does not satisfy my trends criteria for this race. Winners of the Tingle Creek have won or been placed in the Champion Chase, won or been placed in the Arkle and won or been placed in the Haldon Gold Cup. The horses which meet these criteria are: Well Chief (won Arkle, 2nd Champion Chase), Twist Magic (3rd Haldon Gold Cup and winner of this race in 2007) and Forpadydeplasterer (won Arkle). Therefore we have three strong candidates to oppose the favourite who is set to be sent off at 6/4.
Big Zeb is the lay in the Tingle Creek at Sandown because he does not satisfy my trends criteria for this race. Winners of the Tingle Creek have won or been placed in the Champion Chase, won or been placed in the Arkle and won or been placed in the Haldon Gold Cup. The horses which meet these criteria are: Well Chief (won Arkle, 2nd Champion Chase), Twist Magic (3rd Haldon Gold Cup and winner of this race in 2007) and Forpadydeplasterer (won Arkle). Therefore we have three strong candidates to oppose the favourite who is set to be sent off at 6/4.
Saturday 21 November 2009
Becher Chase 22nd November 2009
1.45 AINTREE - PALYPSO DE CREEK
Palypso De Creek is a confident lay in the Becher Chase at Aintree because his profile does not fit my trends for this race. Firstly he is a six year old and no six year old has won this race. Winners are usually aged between 8 to 11 years old. Secondly past winners have usually run in a National or have previous experience of the National fences and finally past winners have won a chase over 3 miles. Therefore the likeliest winner will come from the following shortlist: Hello Bud (won Scottish National), Irish Raptor (won Topham and 6th Becher) and Idle Talk (4th Scottish National and 4th Becher).
Palypso De Creek has not even run over fences in England and is the forecast second favourite at 9/2 but we have three or four strong candidates on our side.
Palypso De Creek is a confident lay in the Becher Chase at Aintree because his profile does not fit my trends for this race. Firstly he is a six year old and no six year old has won this race. Winners are usually aged between 8 to 11 years old. Secondly past winners have usually run in a National or have previous experience of the National fences and finally past winners have won a chase over 3 miles. Therefore the likeliest winner will come from the following shortlist: Hello Bud (won Scottish National), Irish Raptor (won Topham and 6th Becher) and Idle Talk (4th Scottish National and 4th Becher).
Palypso De Creek has not even run over fences in England and is the forecast second favourite at 9/2 but we have three or four strong candidates on our side.
Saturday 24 October 2009
Racing Post Trophy 24th October 2009
3.30 DONCASTER - AL ZIR
Al Zir is the lay in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster because winners of this race have been sired by horses who raced in Europe and Al Zir's sire Medaglia D'Oro is American bred who raced on the dirt.
The shortlist of likeliest winners include the favourite St Nicholas Abbey and Coordinated Cut both sired by Montjeu who has produced two previous winners of this race. Al Zir is the third favourite at 4/1 but I am confident he will not win.
Al Zir is the lay in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster because winners of this race have been sired by horses who raced in Europe and Al Zir's sire Medaglia D'Oro is American bred who raced on the dirt.
The shortlist of likeliest winners include the favourite St Nicholas Abbey and Coordinated Cut both sired by Montjeu who has produced two previous winners of this race. Al Zir is the third favourite at 4/1 but I am confident he will not win.
Saturday 17 October 2009
Champion Stakes 17th October 2009
3.00 NEWMARKET - MAWATHEEQ
Mawatheeq is the confident lay in the Champion Stakes at Newmarket because all past winners of this race had solid Group 1 form and Mawatheeq has only won at Group 3 level so this is a big step up in class. Winners of this race have usually run in the following races: English/Irish Guineas, Derby, Eclipse and the Irish Champion Stakes. Fame And Glory was second in the Derby, won the Irish Derby and was second to Sea The Stars in the Irish Champion Stakes and providing his exertions in the Arc have not taken too much out of him will be hard to beat and is the worthy favourite.
Mawatheeq is the third favourite in the betting at 6/1 behind Fame And Glory and Sariska and from the trends already highlighted will not be winning this and I advise my readers to lay him on Betfair.
Mawatheeq is the confident lay in the Champion Stakes at Newmarket because all past winners of this race had solid Group 1 form and Mawatheeq has only won at Group 3 level so this is a big step up in class. Winners of this race have usually run in the following races: English/Irish Guineas, Derby, Eclipse and the Irish Champion Stakes. Fame And Glory was second in the Derby, won the Irish Derby and was second to Sea The Stars in the Irish Champion Stakes and providing his exertions in the Arc have not taken too much out of him will be hard to beat and is the worthy favourite.
Mawatheeq is the third favourite in the betting at 6/1 behind Fame And Glory and Sariska and from the trends already highlighted will not be winning this and I advise my readers to lay him on Betfair.
Saturday 26 September 2009
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes 26th September 2009
4.15 ASCOT - AQLAAM
Aqlaam is the lay in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Group 1 at Ascot today because he has to overcome two top class three year olds whose level of form this season is far superior to what he has achieved. According to my trends, winners of this contest have run in the following races: 2000 Guineas, St James Palace Stakes, Eclipse, Sussex Stakes and the Celebration Mile. In Rip Van Winkle (4th Guineas, 4th Derby,2nd Eclipse and won Sussex Stakes) and Delegator (2nd Guineas,2nd St James Palace Stakes and won Celebration Mile), we have two outstanding milers who look set to fight out the finish in what is a fascinating race.
Aqlaam is the third favourite in the four runner field at 6/1 but this looks a match between the two most powerful stables in racing.
Aqlaam is the lay in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Group 1 at Ascot today because he has to overcome two top class three year olds whose level of form this season is far superior to what he has achieved. According to my trends, winners of this contest have run in the following races: 2000 Guineas, St James Palace Stakes, Eclipse, Sussex Stakes and the Celebration Mile. In Rip Van Winkle (4th Guineas, 4th Derby,2nd Eclipse and won Sussex Stakes) and Delegator (2nd Guineas,2nd St James Palace Stakes and won Celebration Mile), we have two outstanding milers who look set to fight out the finish in what is a fascinating race.
Aqlaam is the third favourite in the four runner field at 6/1 but this looks a match between the two most powerful stables in racing.
Friday 11 September 2009
St Leger 12th September 2009
3.00 DONCASTER - KITE WOOD
Kite Wood is the lay in the St Leger at Doncaster because he does not fit the trends of past St Leger winners. According to my statistics past winners of the St Leger have usually achieved the following results in their 3 year old careers: top 7 finish in the Derby, finished in the first 5 in the Irish Derby, finished in the first 4 in the King Edward VII and a top 4 finish in the Voltigeur.
Kite Wood has only finished 9th in the Derby, so applying these trends the shortlist of likeliest winners are: Father Time - won King Edward VII and 3rd in the Voltigeur, Monitor Closely - won Voltigeur and Mourayan - 3rd Irish Derby.
Moreover past winners have only raced over 1m 4f before tackling the St Leger distance so this is another negative for Kite Wood who has twice raced over 1m5f. Kite Wood is the favourite at 5/2 but there are three worthy candidates listed above who can get the better of him.
Kite Wood is the lay in the St Leger at Doncaster because he does not fit the trends of past St Leger winners. According to my statistics past winners of the St Leger have usually achieved the following results in their 3 year old careers: top 7 finish in the Derby, finished in the first 5 in the Irish Derby, finished in the first 4 in the King Edward VII and a top 4 finish in the Voltigeur.
Kite Wood has only finished 9th in the Derby, so applying these trends the shortlist of likeliest winners are: Father Time - won King Edward VII and 3rd in the Voltigeur, Monitor Closely - won Voltigeur and Mourayan - 3rd Irish Derby.
Moreover past winners have only raced over 1m 4f before tackling the St Leger distance so this is another negative for Kite Wood who has twice raced over 1m5f. Kite Wood is the favourite at 5/2 but there are three worthy candidates listed above who can get the better of him.
Friday 28 August 2009
Celebration Mile 29th August 2009
3.10 GOODWOOD - ZACINTO
Zacinto is the lay in the Celebration Mile because his level of form is not good enough to win this race and there are strong trends which can be used to pinpoint the likeliest winner. Past winners have run and been placed in the following Group 1 races: English or Irish 2000 Guineas and the St James Palace Stakes.
Only one horse fits these trends and this is the odds on favourite Delegator who was second in both the Guineas and St James Palace Stakes. Zacinto is the second favourite at 2/1 but he has to improve 14lbs to beat the favourite.
Zacinto is the lay in the Celebration Mile because his level of form is not good enough to win this race and there are strong trends which can be used to pinpoint the likeliest winner. Past winners have run and been placed in the following Group 1 races: English or Irish 2000 Guineas and the St James Palace Stakes.
Only one horse fits these trends and this is the odds on favourite Delegator who was second in both the Guineas and St James Palace Stakes. Zacinto is the second favourite at 2/1 but he has to improve 14lbs to beat the favourite.
Monday 17 August 2009
Juddmonte International Stakes 18th August 2009
3.25 YORK - MASTERCRAFTSMAN
This is effectively a match between the brilliant Guineas, Derby and Eclipse winner Sea The Stars and the Irish Guineas and St James Palace winner Mastercraftsman and it is difficult to envisage how Mastercraftsman can beat the odds on favourite no matter how the race is run with Aidan O'Brien employing two pacemakers. Sea The Stars has already beaten Mastercraftsman in the Guineas and on official ratings has 10lbs in hand of his rival.
From a trends point of view winners of this race have run over the distance of 1m2f whereas Mastercraftsman has only run over a mile, another big negative to his chances. He is the 5/2 second favourite but I can only see one winner and Sea The Stars will maintain his unbeaten record this season.
This is effectively a match between the brilliant Guineas, Derby and Eclipse winner Sea The Stars and the Irish Guineas and St James Palace winner Mastercraftsman and it is difficult to envisage how Mastercraftsman can beat the odds on favourite no matter how the race is run with Aidan O'Brien employing two pacemakers. Sea The Stars has already beaten Mastercraftsman in the Guineas and on official ratings has 10lbs in hand of his rival.
From a trends point of view winners of this race have run over the distance of 1m2f whereas Mastercraftsman has only run over a mile, another big negative to his chances. He is the 5/2 second favourite but I can only see one winner and Sea The Stars will maintain his unbeaten record this season.
Great Voltigeur Stakes 18th August 2009
2.50 YORK - JUKEBOX JURY
Jukebox Jury is a confident lay in the Great Voltigeur Stakes because he has not run over the race distance of 1m 4f whereas all the previous ten winners have. Moreover according to my trends winners of this race have usually run in the following races: King Edward VII Stakes at Ascot, Gordon Stakes at Goodwood or a Group 1 race over 1m 4f i.e. King George or a Derby.
These trends do not apply to Jukebox Jury but do apply to the front three in the betting - Harbinger won the Gordon Stakes, Alwaary was 4th in the King George and Father Time won the King Edward VII. Jukebox Jury is likely to be about 6/1 but we have three solid candidates to oppose him with.
Jukebox Jury is a confident lay in the Great Voltigeur Stakes because he has not run over the race distance of 1m 4f whereas all the previous ten winners have. Moreover according to my trends winners of this race have usually run in the following races: King Edward VII Stakes at Ascot, Gordon Stakes at Goodwood or a Group 1 race over 1m 4f i.e. King George or a Derby.
These trends do not apply to Jukebox Jury but do apply to the front three in the betting - Harbinger won the Gordon Stakes, Alwaary was 4th in the King George and Father Time won the King Edward VII. Jukebox Jury is likely to be about 6/1 but we have three solid candidates to oppose him with.
Tuesday 28 July 2009
Sussex Stakes 29th July 2009
3.25 GOODWOOD - RIP VAN WINKLE
Rip Van Winkle will not win the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood tomorrow because I think the mile trip is too short for him and we can oppose him with the other two horses at the head of the market, namely Ghanaati and Paco Boy. Although Rip Van Winkle has run three credible races behind the top class Sea The Stars in the 2000 Guineas, Derby and Eclipse, according to my trends for the last twenty years he does not fit the profile of the winner of this race. He is forecast to be the 6/4 favourite.
My trends for this race points to a horse which has run in the following Group 1 races - won or placed over a mile as a 3 year old i.e. Guineas, St James Palace Stakes or Coronation Stakes, won or placed in the Queen Anne and a top 4 finish in the Lockinge Stakes. Also no winner of this race ran in a Derby, which is a big negative for Rip Van Winkle's chances and he was only fourth in the 2000 Guineas.
So I expect either Ghanaati or Paco Boy to win the race and hopefully you will make money by laying the favourite Rip Van Winkle.
Rip Van Winkle will not win the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood tomorrow because I think the mile trip is too short for him and we can oppose him with the other two horses at the head of the market, namely Ghanaati and Paco Boy. Although Rip Van Winkle has run three credible races behind the top class Sea The Stars in the 2000 Guineas, Derby and Eclipse, according to my trends for the last twenty years he does not fit the profile of the winner of this race. He is forecast to be the 6/4 favourite.
My trends for this race points to a horse which has run in the following Group 1 races - won or placed over a mile as a 3 year old i.e. Guineas, St James Palace Stakes or Coronation Stakes, won or placed in the Queen Anne and a top 4 finish in the Lockinge Stakes. Also no winner of this race ran in a Derby, which is a big negative for Rip Van Winkle's chances and he was only fourth in the 2000 Guineas.
So I expect either Ghanaati or Paco Boy to win the race and hopefully you will make money by laying the favourite Rip Van Winkle.
Friday 24 July 2009
King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes 25th July 2009
4.25 ASCOT - CONDUIT
Conduit will not win the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot tomorrow because according to my trends and statistics no St Leger winner has managed to win this race and he is a very poor value favourite at 6/4. Indeed horses which have run in the St Leger have a poor record in the King George so this would also rule out Ask, Look Here and Frozen Fire. My trends for this race points to a horse which has run in the following Group 1 races: won or placed in the Derby and/or Irish Derby, won or placed in the Prince of Wales. Therefore Tartan Bearer fits the above criteria and I expect him to run very well and get the better of his stablemate and the booking of Mick Kinane can only be a positive because he has won this race five times.
Conduit will not win the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot tomorrow because according to my trends and statistics no St Leger winner has managed to win this race and he is a very poor value favourite at 6/4. Indeed horses which have run in the St Leger have a poor record in the King George so this would also rule out Ask, Look Here and Frozen Fire. My trends for this race points to a horse which has run in the following Group 1 races: won or placed in the Derby and/or Irish Derby, won or placed in the Prince of Wales. Therefore Tartan Bearer fits the above criteria and I expect him to run very well and get the better of his stablemate and the booking of Mick Kinane can only be a positive because he has won this race five times.
Saturday 11 July 2009
Irish Oaks 12th July 2009
3.40 CURRAGH - MIDDAY
I will be laying Midday because although she finished runner up to Sariska in the English Oaks at Epsom, I think Sariska has more improvement to come and I cannot see how Midday can beat the favourite no matter what the ground conditions, which are likely to be soft. My main reason for opposing Midday is that her sire Oasis Dream was a sprinter and has not yet sired a Group 1 middle distance winner and I am confident this will still be the case after tomorrow's race. Midday is the forecast second favourite at around 3/1.
The likeliest winner is the favourite and Oaks heroine Sariska although there is an unexposed Irish challenger in the shape of John Oxx's Beauty O'Gwaun.
I will be laying Midday because although she finished runner up to Sariska in the English Oaks at Epsom, I think Sariska has more improvement to come and I cannot see how Midday can beat the favourite no matter what the ground conditions, which are likely to be soft. My main reason for opposing Midday is that her sire Oasis Dream was a sprinter and has not yet sired a Group 1 middle distance winner and I am confident this will still be the case after tomorrow's race. Midday is the forecast second favourite at around 3/1.
The likeliest winner is the favourite and Oaks heroine Sariska although there is an unexposed Irish challenger in the shape of John Oxx's Beauty O'Gwaun.
Friday 3 July 2009
Coral Eclipse Stakes 4th July 2009
3.15 SANDOWN - CONDUIT
Conduit is a confident lay because no St Leger winner has managed to win this race and he does not fit the profile of an Eclipse winner.Conduit is the forecast second favourite at around 4/1. My trends for this race points to a horse which has run in the following Group 1 races - 2000 Guineas, Derby, Prince of Wales, Queen Anne, St James Palace, Juddmonte and Champion Stakes.
We have a shortlist of Sea The Stars, Rip Van Winkle and Twice Over to oppose the selection with and the likeliest winner is the short priced favourite and impressive Derby winner Sea The Stars.
Conduit is a confident lay because no St Leger winner has managed to win this race and he does not fit the profile of an Eclipse winner.Conduit is the forecast second favourite at around 4/1. My trends for this race points to a horse which has run in the following Group 1 races - 2000 Guineas, Derby, Prince of Wales, Queen Anne, St James Palace, Juddmonte and Champion Stakes.
We have a shortlist of Sea The Stars, Rip Van Winkle and Twice Over to oppose the selection with and the likeliest winner is the short priced favourite and impressive Derby winner Sea The Stars.
Monday 29 June 2009
Welcome horse racing fans to my blog
Hi
Welcome to my blog on horse racing and specifically making money from backing horses to lose. I have been using betting exchanges to back horses to lose a race simply by identifying trends and statistics of the race in question and have been highly successful. I will concentrate on group and major listed races in the UK during the flat and National Hunt season and discuss the reasons for opposing my selection.
Read my views and selection of a horse to oppose on Saturday 4th July where the Coral Eclipse Stakes takes place at Sandown Park.
Welcome to my blog on horse racing and specifically making money from backing horses to lose. I have been using betting exchanges to back horses to lose a race simply by identifying trends and statistics of the race in question and have been highly successful. I will concentrate on group and major listed races in the UK during the flat and National Hunt season and discuss the reasons for opposing my selection.
Read my views and selection of a horse to oppose on Saturday 4th July where the Coral Eclipse Stakes takes place at Sandown Park.
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