Friday 28 August 2009

Celebration Mile 29th August 2009

3.10 GOODWOOD - ZACINTO

Zacinto is the lay in the Celebration Mile because his level of form is not good enough to win this race and there are strong trends which can be used to pinpoint the likeliest winner. Past winners have run and been placed in the following Group 1 races: English or Irish 2000 Guineas and the St James Palace Stakes.

Only one horse fits these trends and this is the odds on favourite Delegator who was second in both the Guineas and St James Palace Stakes. Zacinto is the second favourite at 2/1 but he has to improve 14lbs to beat the favourite.

Monday 17 August 2009

Juddmonte International Stakes 18th August 2009

3.25 YORK - MASTERCRAFTSMAN

This is effectively a match between the brilliant Guineas, Derby and Eclipse winner Sea The Stars and the Irish Guineas and St James Palace winner Mastercraftsman and it is difficult to envisage how Mastercraftsman can beat the odds on favourite no matter how the race is run with Aidan O'Brien employing two pacemakers. Sea The Stars has already beaten Mastercraftsman in the Guineas and on official ratings has 10lbs in hand of his rival.

From a trends point of view winners of this race have run over the distance of 1m2f whereas Mastercraftsman has only run over a mile, another big negative to his chances. He is the 5/2 second favourite but I can only see one winner and Sea The Stars will maintain his unbeaten record this season.

Great Voltigeur Stakes 18th August 2009

2.50 YORK - JUKEBOX JURY

Jukebox Jury is a confident lay in the Great Voltigeur Stakes because he has not run over the race distance of 1m 4f whereas all the previous ten winners have. Moreover according to my trends winners of this race have usually run in the following races: King Edward VII Stakes at Ascot, Gordon Stakes at Goodwood or a Group 1 race over 1m 4f i.e. King George or a Derby.

These trends do not apply to Jukebox Jury but do apply to the front three in the betting - Harbinger won the Gordon Stakes, Alwaary was 4th in the King George and Father Time won the King Edward VII. Jukebox Jury is likely to be about 6/1 but we have three solid candidates to oppose him with.