Wednesday, 9 December 2009

Peterborough Chase 10th December 2009


Deep Purple is the lay in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon because he does not fit the profile of past winners of this race. Winners of the Peterborough Chase have won or been placed in the King George, placed in the Tingle Creek, placed in the Royal and Sun Alliance and ran in the Arkle and Old Roan chases. The horses which satisfy these trends are: Albertas Run (won Royal and Sun Alliance and 2nd King George), Racing Demon (7th Arkle and 3rd King George) and Tidal Bay (won Arkle, 2nd Tingle Creek, 2nd Old Roan).

Deep Purple has only won a Charlie Hall chase and is forecast to be 5/1.

Saturday, 5 December 2009

Tingle Creek Chase 5th December 2009


Big Zeb is the lay in the Tingle Creek at Sandown because he does not satisfy my trends criteria for this race. Winners of the Tingle Creek have won or been placed in the Champion Chase, won or been placed in the Arkle and won or been placed in the Haldon Gold Cup. The horses which meet these criteria are: Well Chief (won Arkle, 2nd Champion Chase), Twist Magic (3rd Haldon Gold Cup and winner of this race in 2007) and Forpadydeplasterer (won Arkle). Therefore we have three strong candidates to oppose the favourite who is set to be sent off at 6/4.

Saturday, 21 November 2009

Becher Chase 22nd November 2009


Palypso De Creek is a confident lay in the Becher Chase at Aintree because his profile does not fit my trends for this race. Firstly he is a six year old and no six year old has won this race. Winners are usually aged between 8 to 11 years old. Secondly past winners have usually run in a National or have previous experience of the National fences and finally past winners have won a chase over 3 miles. Therefore the likeliest winner will come from the following shortlist: Hello Bud (won Scottish National), Irish Raptor (won Topham and 6th Becher) and Idle Talk (4th Scottish National and 4th Becher).

Palypso De Creek has not even run over fences in England and is the forecast second favourite at 9/2 but we have three or four strong candidates on our side.

Saturday, 24 October 2009

Racing Post Trophy 24th October 2009


Al Zir is the lay in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster because winners of this race have been sired by horses who raced in Europe and Al Zir's sire Medaglia D'Oro is American bred who raced on the dirt.

The shortlist of likeliest winners include the favourite St Nicholas Abbey and Coordinated Cut both sired by Montjeu who has produced two previous winners of this race. Al Zir is the third favourite at 4/1 but I am confident he will not win.

Saturday, 17 October 2009

Champion Stakes 17th October 2009


Mawatheeq is the confident lay in the Champion Stakes at Newmarket because all past winners of this race had solid Group 1 form and Mawatheeq has only won at Group 3 level so this is a big step up in class. Winners of this race have usually run in the following races: English/Irish Guineas, Derby, Eclipse and the Irish Champion Stakes. Fame And Glory was second in the Derby, won the Irish Derby and was second to Sea The Stars in the Irish Champion Stakes and providing his exertions in the Arc have not taken too much out of him will be hard to beat and is the worthy favourite.

Mawatheeq is the third favourite in the betting at 6/1 behind Fame And Glory and Sariska and from the trends already highlighted will not be winning this and I advise my readers to lay him on Betfair.

Saturday, 26 September 2009

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes 26th September 2009


Aqlaam is the lay in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Group 1 at Ascot today because he has to overcome two top class three year olds whose level of form this season is far superior to what he has achieved. According to my trends, winners of this contest have run in the following races: 2000 Guineas, St James Palace Stakes, Eclipse, Sussex Stakes and the Celebration Mile. In Rip Van Winkle (4th Guineas, 4th Derby,2nd Eclipse and won Sussex Stakes) and Delegator (2nd Guineas,2nd St James Palace Stakes and won Celebration Mile), we have two outstanding milers who look set to fight out the finish in what is a fascinating race.

Aqlaam is the third favourite in the four runner field at 6/1 but this looks a match between the two most powerful stables in racing.

Friday, 11 September 2009

St Leger 12th September 2009


Kite Wood is the lay in the St Leger at Doncaster because he does not fit the trends of past St Leger winners. According to my statistics past winners of the St Leger have usually achieved the following results in their 3 year old careers: top 7 finish in the Derby, finished in the first 5 in the Irish Derby, finished in the first 4 in the King Edward VII and a top 4 finish in the Voltigeur.

Kite Wood has only finished 9th in the Derby, so applying these trends the shortlist of likeliest winners are: Father Time - won King Edward VII and 3rd in the Voltigeur, Monitor Closely - won Voltigeur and Mourayan - 3rd Irish Derby.

Moreover past winners have only raced over 1m 4f before tackling the St Leger distance so this is another negative for Kite Wood who has twice raced over 1m5f. Kite Wood is the favourite at 5/2 but there are three worthy candidates listed above who can get the better of him.