4.15 ASCOT - AQLAAM
Aqlaam is the lay in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Group 1 at Ascot today because he has to overcome two top class three year olds whose level of form this season is far superior to what he has achieved. According to my trends, winners of this contest have run in the following races: 2000 Guineas, St James Palace Stakes, Eclipse, Sussex Stakes and the Celebration Mile. In Rip Van Winkle (4th Guineas, 4th Derby,2nd Eclipse and won Sussex Stakes) and Delegator (2nd Guineas,2nd St James Palace Stakes and won Celebration Mile), we have two outstanding milers who look set to fight out the finish in what is a fascinating race.
Aqlaam is the third favourite in the four runner field at 6/1 but this looks a match between the two most powerful stables in racing.
Saturday 26 September 2009
Friday 11 September 2009
St Leger 12th September 2009
3.00 DONCASTER - KITE WOOD
Kite Wood is the lay in the St Leger at Doncaster because he does not fit the trends of past St Leger winners. According to my statistics past winners of the St Leger have usually achieved the following results in their 3 year old careers: top 7 finish in the Derby, finished in the first 5 in the Irish Derby, finished in the first 4 in the King Edward VII and a top 4 finish in the Voltigeur.
Kite Wood has only finished 9th in the Derby, so applying these trends the shortlist of likeliest winners are: Father Time - won King Edward VII and 3rd in the Voltigeur, Monitor Closely - won Voltigeur and Mourayan - 3rd Irish Derby.
Moreover past winners have only raced over 1m 4f before tackling the St Leger distance so this is another negative for Kite Wood who has twice raced over 1m5f. Kite Wood is the favourite at 5/2 but there are three worthy candidates listed above who can get the better of him.
Kite Wood is the lay in the St Leger at Doncaster because he does not fit the trends of past St Leger winners. According to my statistics past winners of the St Leger have usually achieved the following results in their 3 year old careers: top 7 finish in the Derby, finished in the first 5 in the Irish Derby, finished in the first 4 in the King Edward VII and a top 4 finish in the Voltigeur.
Kite Wood has only finished 9th in the Derby, so applying these trends the shortlist of likeliest winners are: Father Time - won King Edward VII and 3rd in the Voltigeur, Monitor Closely - won Voltigeur and Mourayan - 3rd Irish Derby.
Moreover past winners have only raced over 1m 4f before tackling the St Leger distance so this is another negative for Kite Wood who has twice raced over 1m5f. Kite Wood is the favourite at 5/2 but there are three worthy candidates listed above who can get the better of him.
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