Sussex Stakes 29th July 2009

3.25 GOODWOOD - RIP VAN WINKLE

Rip Van Winkle will not win the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood tomorrow because I think the mile trip is too short for him and we can oppose him with the other two horses at the head of the market, namely Ghanaati and Paco Boy. Although Rip Van Winkle has run three credible races behind the top class Sea The Stars in the 2000 Guineas, Derby and Eclipse, according to my trends for the last twenty years he does not fit the profile of the winner of this race. He is forecast to be the 6/4 favourite.

My trends for this race points to a horse which has run in the following Group 1 races - won or placed over a mile as a 3 year old i.e. Guineas, St James Palace Stakes or Coronation Stakes, won or placed in the Queen Anne and a top 4 finish in the Lockinge Stakes. Also no winner of this race ran in a Derby, which is a big negative for Rip Van Winkle's chances and he was only fourth in the 2000 Guineas.

So I expect either Ghanaati or Paco Boy to win the race and hopefully you will make money by laying the favourite Rip Van Winkle.

King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes 25th July 2009

4.25 ASCOT - CONDUIT

Conduit will not win the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot tomorrow because according to my trends and statistics no St Leger winner has managed to win this race and he is a very poor value favourite at 6/4. Indeed horses which have run in the St Leger have a poor record in the King George so this would also rule out Ask, Look Here and Frozen Fire. My trends for this race points to a horse which has run in the following Group 1 races: won or placed in the Derby and/or Irish Derby, won or placed in the Prince of Wales. Therefore Tartan Bearer fits the above criteria and I expect him to run very well and get the better of his stablemate and the booking of Mick Kinane can only be a positive because he has won this race five times.

Irish Oaks 12th July 2009

3.40 CURRAGH - MIDDAY

I will be laying Midday because although she finished runner up to Sariska in the English Oaks at Epsom, I think Sariska has more improvement to come and I cannot see how Midday can beat the favourite no matter what the ground conditions, which are likely to be soft. My main reason for opposing Midday is that her sire Oasis Dream was a sprinter and has not yet sired a Group 1 middle distance winner and I am confident this will still be the case after tomorrow's race. Midday is the forecast second favourite at around 3/1.

The likeliest winner is the favourite and Oaks heroine Sariska although there is an unexposed Irish challenger in the shape of John Oxx's Beauty O'Gwaun.

Coral Eclipse Stakes 4th July 2009

3.15 SANDOWN - CONDUIT

Conduit is a confident lay because no St Leger winner has managed to win this race and he does not fit the profile of an Eclipse winner.Conduit is the forecast second favourite at around 4/1. My trends for this race points to a horse which has run in the following Group 1 races - 2000 Guineas, Derby, Prince of Wales, Queen Anne, St James Palace, Juddmonte and Champion Stakes.

We have a shortlist of Sea The Stars, Rip Van Winkle and Twice Over to oppose the selection with and the likeliest winner is the short priced favourite and impressive Derby winner Sea The Stars.