3.25 GOODWOOD - RIP VAN WINKLE
Rip Van Winkle will not win the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood tomorrow because I think the mile trip is too short for him and we can oppose him with the other two horses at the head of the market, namely Ghanaati and Paco Boy. Although Rip Van Winkle has run three credible races behind the top class Sea The Stars in the 2000 Guineas, Derby and Eclipse, according to my trends for the last twenty years he does not fit the profile of the winner of this race. He is forecast to be the 6/4 favourite.
My trends for this race points to a horse which has run in the following Group 1 races - won or placed over a mile as a 3 year old i.e. Guineas, St James Palace Stakes or Coronation Stakes, won or placed in the Queen Anne and a top 4 finish in the Lockinge Stakes. Also no winner of this race ran in a Derby, which is a big negative for Rip Van Winkle's chances and he was only fourth in the 2000 Guineas.
So I expect either Ghanaati or Paco Boy to win the race and hopefully you will make money by laying the favourite Rip Van Winkle.
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